The political contest between President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) is rapidly becoming one of the defining battles ahead of the 2027 General Election.
At first glance, DCP appears to have momentum. Gachagua has attracted several elected leaders and grassroots politicians, while the party’s victory in the Ol Kalou by-election gave it a major psychological boost in the region. DCP's candidate Sammy Ngotho secured more than 29,000 votes, reinforcing the perception that Gachagua has established a formidable base in parts of Mt Kenya.
But beneath the headlines, UDA is quietly changing the equation .
1. UDA is forcing DCP to defend its gains
Gachagua's strategy has been straightforward: consolidate Mt Kenya behind DCP and portray the party as the region's political home.
The response from UDA has been to prevent that consolidation from becoming complete.
UDA leaders have intensified their grassroots mobilisation, while party officials have openly challenged Gachagua's claim to exclusive ownership of the region's political space. Embu Governor and UDA national chairperson Cecily Mbarire, for example, has recently stepped up attacks on Gachagua.
This matters because DCP's biggest advantage is the perception that Mt Kenya has already moved .
UDA's counter-strategy is essentially to say: not so fast.
2. DCP's defections may be creating an exaggerated picture of its strength
There is no question that DCP has attracted significant political figures.
Murang'a Governor Irungu Kang'ata joined Gachagua's camp, while other governors, MCAs and local leaders have also shifted towards DCP. More recently, 10 Kirinyaga MCAs were reported to have aligned themselves with the former Deputy President.
But elections are ultimately about voters, not political endorsements.
This is where UDA can still compete.
A politician crossing the floor does not automatically transfer an entire constituency's vote to a new party. Many of these leaders will have to return to the electorate in 2027 and convince voters that their new political home is the right one.
UDA therefore has an incentive to concentrate on grassroots structures rather than engage in a simple contest of personalities.
3. Ol Kalou has become both a DCP victory and a UDA warning
The Ol Kalou by-election was undoubtedly a major boost for Gachagua.
But it also gave UDA valuable information.
The result showed the ruling party where its weaknesses are strongest and where its campaign machinery needs rebuilding.
For UDA, the lesson is not necessarily that DCP is unbeatable. It is that the old 2022 formula cannot simply be repeated .
The party now has time to identify weak constituencies, recruit local political figures and rebuild its grassroots networks before 2027.
That makes Ol Kalou less of a final verdict and more of an early warning.
4. UDA still has the advantage of incumbency
Ruto has something Gachagua does not: the machinery and visibility that comes with occupying State House.
UDA can campaign around government programmes, development projects and policies while maintaining a national political presence.
That does not automatically translate into votes. But it provides the ruling party with a platform from which to contest every constituency.
DCP, meanwhile, must turn its current political excitement into a permanent electoral organisation.
That is a much harder task.
5. Gachagua's growing dominance could also unite his opponents
There is an interesting paradox developing in Mt Kenya politics.
The stronger Gachagua appears, the more likely other politicians are to organise against him.
Smaller parties have already been struggling with DCP's expansion, while Gachagua has increasingly positioned his party as the region's principal political force.
That could push politicians who fear losing their seats to look for alternatives.
UDA can therefore benefit from becoming the counterweight to DCP , particularly among voters and leaders who do not want the region's politics dominated by a single political formation.
6. UDA's real battle is not necessarily to defeat Gachagua
This is perhaps the most important point.
UDA does not need to destroy DCP in Mt Kenya.
It needs to prevent DCP from achieving an overwhelming sweep.
If DCP wins 100 per cent of the region's vote, the political consequences for Ruto would be enormous.
But if UDA retains a significant share of Mt Kenya votes, even without dominating the region, Ruto's national electoral mathematics remain much more manageable.
That is why the emerging contest should not simply be viewed as Ruto versus Gachagua .
It is increasingly a battle over how much of Mt Kenya each side can control.
7. The 2027 question will be turnout and vote distribution
Gachagua has already demonstrated that he can mobilise large crowds and attract political defections.
UDA, however, will be looking beyond rallies.
The real contest will be voter registration, mobilisation, polling-station agents, local networks and turnout.
Gachagua has himself emphasised the importance of having political parties and agents working together to protect votes in 2027.
That acknowledgement reveals just how important the organisational battle will become.
The bigger picture
DCP may currently have the momentum narrative in Mt Kenya.
UDA, however, still has the institutional advantage .
The next year will determine which of the two becomes more important.
Gachagua needs to convert political excitement into a durable regional machine. Ruto needs to demonstrate that UDA can survive the loss of influential former allies and rebuild trust among voters who have become disillusioned with his administration.
The battle is therefore far from settled.
DCP may have started the Mt Kenya race with a wave, but UDA is now working to tilt the terrain underneath it.
And if UDA succeeds in retaining even a sizeable minority of Mt Kenya voters while expanding Ruto's support elsewhere, the political narrative could change dramatically before August 2027.
For Gachagua, the challenge is no longer simply to demonstrate that Mt Kenya is angry with Ruto.
He must prove that the anger belongs exclusively to DCP.
That may be the hardest part of his 2027 strategy.