For much of the period since the 2022 General Election, President William Ruto’s relationship with Mt Kenya has been one of the biggest political questions in Kenya.
The region delivered a substantial share of the votes that helped propel Ruto to State House in 2022. But the subsequent political fallout between Ruto and his former deputy, Rigathi Gachagua, has transformed Mt Kenya into one of the most fiercely contested political battlegrounds ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Gachagua has used the fallout to build the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) into a vehicle for challenging Ruto's influence in the region.
UDA, however, is not conceding Mt Kenya.
Instead, the ruling party appears to be pursuing a quieter strategy: rebuild its grassroots structures, strengthen relationships with local leaders and convince voters that the region's political future should not be determined by one individual or party.
UDA is taking the battle to the grassroots
The most important element of UDA's strategy is likely to be grassroots mobilisation.
Presidential elections are rarely won through national rallies alone. They are built through constituency networks, ward-level mobilisation, local leaders and political structures that can translate national popularity into votes on election day.
UDA therefore has an incentive to strengthen its presence in villages and constituencies across Mt Kenya rather than allow DCP to dominate the grassroots political conversation.
The party's challenge is significant because Gachagua has presented himself as a defender of the region's interests and has built a political narrative around what he describes as the need for Mt Kenya to negotiate from a position of strength.
UDA's counterargument is increasingly about national politics: that voters should not surrender their political choices to a single regional political formation.
Local leaders are becoming the frontline soldiers
The battle is also increasingly being fought through local politicians.
UDA needs governors, MPs, MCAs and aspirants who can speak directly to voters and defend the party's record.
This is particularly important because many voters identify more closely with their local political leaders than with national party officials.
The party's strategy therefore appears to be about creating a network of local voices capable of challenging DCP's narrative constituency by constituency.
For UDA, every governor, MP, MCA and aspiring politician who remains within its camp represents more than an individual endorsement. Such leaders provide political networks that can be activated during the election campaign.
DCP's momentum has forced UDA to change strategy
There is little doubt that Gachagua's political comeback has unsettled the ruling party's calculations.
The DCP leader has attracted politicians and supporters who believe Mt Kenya should have a stronger independent political voice.
The Ol Kalou by-election further strengthened the perception of DCP momentum after its candidate Sammy Ngotho defeated UDA's candidate.
But UDA can also read the result differently.
Instead of treating Ol Kalou as proof that the region has permanently abandoned Ruto, the party can regard it as an early warning about where its political weaknesses lie.
That gives UDA time to reorganise before 2027.
Ruto's biggest weapon is still incumbency
Ruto also retains one advantage Gachagua cannot easily replicate: incumbency.
The President can campaign on government programmes, development projects and policies implemented during his administration.
The effectiveness of this strategy will ultimately depend on whether voters believe those programmes have improved their lives.
This is where UDA's political messaging in Mt Kenya will become critical.
The party will have to move beyond attacking Gachagua and instead explain what Ruto's administration has delivered for farmers, businesses, young people and families across the region.
UDA wants to break the idea that Mt Kenya has already chosen DCP
Perhaps the most important political objective for UDA is psychological.
DCP benefits from a narrative that Mt Kenya has already moved decisively behind Gachagua.
If that perception becomes entrenched, politicians who are considering their 2027 options may conclude that joining DCP is the safest route.
UDA must therefore demonstrate that the region remains politically competitive.
This explains why the party's grassroots activities and public mobilisation are important. They are not simply about winning rallies. They are about creating the perception that Ruto still has a significant constituency in the region.
The coalition question could change everything
The 2027 contest will also not be fought exclusively between UDA and DCP.
Kenyan presidential politics are built around coalitions, and Ruto's ability to work with political formations outside his traditional support base could significantly reduce the impact of losing some Mt Kenya support.
UDA's broader national strategy will therefore matter as much as its regional strategy.
If Ruto can retain a meaningful share of Mt Kenya votes while strengthening his support in other regions, he does not necessarily need to recover all the votes he received from the region in 2022.
This is the central calculation behind the UDA strategy.
The battle is far from over
Gachagua currently enjoys an important advantage: he has a clear political identity in Mt Kenya and a narrative that resonates with voters who feel the region has been politically short-changed.
But political momentum two years before an election is not the same as electoral victory.
UDA still has time to rebuild.
Its success will depend on whether it can reconnect with voters at the grassroots, retain influential local leaders, sell the administration's development record and convince Mt Kenya voters that supporting Ruto remains compatible with the region's interests.
For DCP, the challenge is equally serious. It must convert Gachagua's personal popularity and the party's current momentum into a permanent political organisation capable of delivering votes across the region.
The Mt Kenya contest is therefore entering a new phase.
Gachagua may have captured the political imagination of a significant section of the region, but UDA is now preparing for a long fight to win back the ground it has lost.
The question heading into 2027 is no longer whether Ruto has lost Mt Kenya.
The real question is how much of the region UDA can win back before Kenyans go to the ballot.